2004 Pilgrim numbers - month by month forecast

[Richard Ferguson]

To answer Jeffrey's question, the discrepancy could be caused by many factors.  One, the
difference between numbers of pilgrims in refugios vs. compostellas given.  I understood that
the 3000 refered to pilgrims in refugios, not compostellas. I would be surprised if those two
numbers were the same, and one weakness in my projected numbers is that I used the ratio of
the monthly distribution of compostellas to distribute the pilgrims in refugio numbers.  The
other relates to the difference in timing of different events.  January is the lowest month for
compostellas, but there are many more compostellas given in February.  Presumably many of
the people in refugios in January do not receive their compostella until February.  Perhaps the
pilgrims in January are less likely to complete their pilgrimage and get a compostella.
Perhaps, due to the holy year, more pilgrims are traveling "off season" to avoid the projected
crowds.

In any event, the monthly numbers I projected are more of a general view of the possible
distribution of pilgrims, and may be even less accurate than I believe.   However, they should
give one a general sense of which months will be very busy vs. less busy.

Richard


From:    Jeffrey Crawley <jt.crawleyaUKONLINE.CO.UK>
Subject: Re: 2004 Pilgrim numbers - month by month forecast

But wasn't the figure for January 2004 nearly 3000 issued?

Jeffrey