2004 Pilgrim numbers - month by month forecast

[Richard Ferguson]

As some of you may remember, I have an interest in forecasted pilgrim numbers during the
Holy year.  There are month-by-month statistics available for receiving compostellas, which is
not the same measurment as stays in refugios, but I will take the liberty of assuming that the
numbers are similar.  However, I suspect that the refugio stays may be person-nights, so
some pilgrims may be counted multiple times.  Of course, some pilgrims do not stay in
refugios.  Some pilgrims do not get compostellas.  I know it sounds like apples and oranges,
but the numbers are close enough to be comparable.

Let's start with the 600,000 pilgrims in 2004 number, from the Galician council of culture.  (My
own forecast, done in 2003 and based on compostella numbers, was for 420,000 pilgrims, so
not all that different from 600,000).  Spreading those pilgrims over the year, using the holy year
1999 as a guide, would be something like this.  If you want to use my projection for number of
compostellas given, reduce the numbers of pilgrims by one third.

January 1000
February 2500
March 21,500
April 33,500
May 41,500
June 52,000
July 135,000
August 177,000
September 85,000
October 40,000
November 12,000
December 12,000

The numbers may not add due to 600,000 due to rounding.  As you can see, August is the
busiest month, with July and September behind.  My guess is that if you picked a point on the
trail between Sarria and Santiago, and stood there with a clipboard for 24 hours in the middle of
August, you would count somewhere between 3000 and 6000 pilgrims walking by during a 24
hour period.

More data can be find at the URL below.

http://peregrino.home.att.net/santiago/statistics.html

Note that the numbers above are the compostella numbers, so if you receive a compostella in
August it is likely that you started walking in July.

I just wanted to put a little bit of reality to the numbers, and give people an idea what they
might find on the camino.  I understand that more than 90% of pilgrims walk the French Way.

Richard