4000 to 5000 Pilgrims per day in August 2004?

[Richard Ferguson]

Some people have been talking about making their pilgrimage in August
2004, so I decided to do something that I have been thinking about for a
while, and do some statistical analysis and projections of the number of
pilgrims in 2004, which is a Holy Year.

My conclusion was that the number of pilgrims in August 2004 is likely to
be around 4500 pilgrims per day.  In other words, if you stood in one place
for a few days, and counted pilgrims as they passed by, you would count
approximately 4500 people per day, on the average.  The actual number is
likely to vary, I would estimate a margin of error of maybe 1500 pilgrims
per day, making the range 3000 to 6000 pilgrims per day.

I know that during the last Holy Year, 1999, there were 1500 pilgrims per
day in August.  I understand that army tents and cots were used to try to
handle the crowds.  I am sure that the local authorities are already making
plans for 2004.

I want to suggest to people that they consider whether or not they really
want to make their personal pilgrimage such a mass event.  I cannot
imagine it myself, it might seem more like a moving army or traveling party
than a spiritual activity.  I confess that I made my pilgrimage in March and
April, to avoid the crowds.  Perhaps someone who was on the pilgrimage
in July or August 1999, during the last Holy Year, could comment on their
experience.

As a separate posting, I am going to try to post an HTML document with
the backup figures and assumptions that I used to develop these
numbers.  I hope that it posts OK.  If not, I may just put it on my personal
website, or try to post it as plain text.

Is Rosina or anyone else aware of any official projections on the number
of pilgrims in 2004?

Richard Ferguson