<!doctype html public "-//w3c//dtd html 4.0 transitional//en"> <html> <head> <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> <meta name="Author" content="Richard Ferguson"> <meta name="GENERATOR" content="Mozilla/4.8 (Macintosh; U; PPC) [Netscape]"> <title>statistics.html</title> </head> <body> <h1> Pilgrims to Santiago</h1> <font size=+1>The Archdiocese of Santiago de Compostella has a good website about the pilgrimage, including statistics.</font> <p><font size=+1><a href="http://www.archicompostela.org/Peregrinos/Estadisticas/Estadisticaperegrinacion.htm">http://www.archicompostela.org/Peregrinos/Estadisticas/Estadisticaperegrinacion.htm</a></font> <p><font size=+1>There are two obvious facts about the statistics: One is the steady increase in pilgrims year over year (I calculated 28% growth per year). The other is the dramatic increase in pilgrims during holy years, a ten-fold increase in 1993, and a fivefold increase in 1999.<!
/font> <p><font size=+1>I decided to use their statistics to make a projection of the number of pilgrims in the next holy year, 2004. Since the website did not include 2002 data, I made a projection based on the 2001 numbers. A more accurate projection could be made using 2002 and 2003 data, if it is available. I decided to use a 20% growth rate for non-holy years, and figure a 5-fold increase for the holy year of 2004. Obviously, it is difficult to project the future, or else I could make a fortune in the stock market. Anyone is welcome to make their own assumptions and their own projections.</font> <p><font size=+1>The table below shows the calendar year, the number of pilgrims receiving compostellas in August, and the number of pilgrims for the entire year.</font> <br> <br> <table BORDER COLS=4 > <tr> <td><font size=+1>Year</font></td> <td><font size=+1>Pilgrims in August</font></td> <td><font size=+1>Pilgrims in entire year</f!
ont></td> <td><font size=+1>Comment</font></td> </tr> <tr> <td><font
size=+1>2001</font></td> <td><font size=+1>19,800</font></td> <td><font size=+1>61,418</font></td> <td><font size=+1></font></td> </tr> <tr> <td><font size=+1>2002</font></td> <td><font size=+1>23,750</font></td> <td><font size=+1>74,000</font></td> <td><font size=+1>Estimated, 20% growth</font></td> </tr> <tr> <td><font size=+1>2003</font></td> <td><font size=+1>28,500</font></td> <td><font size=+1>88,000</font></td> <td><font size=+1>Estimated, 20% growth</font></td> </tr> <tr> <td><font size=+1>2004</font></td> <td><font size=+1>140,000</font></td> <td><font size=+1>450,000</font></td> <td><font size=+1>Estimated, 400% growth</font> <br><font size=+1>Due to Holy Year</font></td> </tr> </table> <font size=+1></font> <p><font size=+1>Assuming that these estimates are roughly correct, that says that during the month of August 2004, there would be approximatey 4500 pilgrims per day on the camino. Clearly this will overwhelm the refugios and other facilti!
es. I understand that large army tents were used during the last holy year, and I assume that other temporary facilities will be used in 2004.</font><font size=+1></font> <p><font size=+1>RAF 6/6/2003</font> <br><font size=+1></font> <br><font size=+1></font> </body> </html>