[Gocamino] Sobre La Crisis Mundial

[Tim]

Hi one and all,
I read your various comments with a wry smile, I note that all those 
commenting are from regions non-European.  IMHO this crisis is being 
talked up out of all proportion. From comments I have seen on media in 
the USA you would think that most of Europe was starving which is far 
from the truth as is the need for either Spain or Italy to have a 'bail 
out'. As for Spain not complying with the EU's budgetary targets this 
year I don't think anyone seriously expected them to do so.
The interesting time will come when and if Francoise Hollande becomes 
the president of France and demands a rethink of the 'stability pact' 
which he is almost sure to do. At that point Franco German solidarity is 
going to be sorely tested and with luck the current Germanic twist 
whereby all have to be good little savers will be chnaged and we can go 
for some much needed growth. As someone pointed out recently Greece is 
not in need of an 'austerity plan' it needs a 'Marshall Plan' and the 
Germans who were the original recipients of such largesse seem to have 
overlooked that point.
Have a good day.
Tim

On 10/03/12 19:34, Grant Spangler wrote:
> Sobre La Crisis Mundial..
>
> Spain and Italy must be watching what's happening in Greece and asking
> themselves whether they want to go through this whole process of
> negotiating for bailouts via austerity measures.
>
> Both countries have already had a small sampling of the austerity measure
> medicine. Spain recently implemented a meager 19€ billion in austerity
> measures while Italy passed 30€ billion in austerity measures in 2011...
>   hardly a drop out of their respective 1.06€ trillion and 1.5€ trillion
> economies.
>
> Yet, even these tiny moves resulted in protests and riots. One can only
> imagine what Spanish and Italian politicians are thinking as they witness
> the widespread civil unrest, country-wide strikes, and economic depression
> that have occurred in Greece as a result of that country's full commitment
> to the EU's austerity measure demands.
>
> Spain's official Debt to GDP is only 64%, but its private sector debt is
> at an astounding 227% of GDP. And the Spanish banking system is leveraged
> at 19 to 1 (worse than Greece).   
>
> Moreover,the country is already experiencing an economic Crisis with an
> unemployment rate of 20+% and an economy that has been contracting since
>   mid-2011 (in fact Spain's GDP just actually went negative in the first
> quarter of 2012)...
>
> So... we must consider that it is highly likely the option of simply defaulting
> is being discussed at the highest levels of the Spanish and Italian government.
> Should either country decide that austerity measures don't work and it's simply
> easier to opt for a default, then we are heading into a Crisis that will make
> 2008 look like a joke.
>
> Well, Spain just woke up and smelled the coffee:
>
> Premier Mariano Rajoy has refused point blank to comply with the austerity
> demands of the European Commission and the European Council (hijacked by
>   Merkozy).
>
> Taking what he called a "sovereign decision", he
> simply announced that he intends to ignore the EU deficit target of
> 4.4pc of GDP for this year, setting his own target of 5.8pc instead
> (down from 8.5pc in 2011).
>
> With condign symbolism, Mr Rajoy dropped his bombshell in Brussels after
> the EU summit, without first notifying the commission or fellow EU leaders.
> Indeed, he seemed to relish the fact that he was tearing up the rule book
> and disavowing the whole EU machinery of budgetary control.
>
> So... if you still think the Greek PSI matters in any way, you're not thinking
> past the next 24 hours. Spain has just told the EU to "shove it." Having seen
> Greece enter a depression and get pushed around by Germany and France for two
> years, Spain's just told the EU that it's not going that route.
>
> So... if Greece, whose economy is roughly the size of Massachusetts, nearly
> took down the European banking system... what do you think will happen
> when Spain decides to it doesn't want to play ball and would rather just
>   default.
>
> Fuente: www.gainspainscapital.com
>
> Buen Camino,
>   
> Grant
>   
> http://www.ElCaminoSantiago.com
> Resources for the Pilgrimage Road to Santiago
>
>
>
>   		 	   		
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