2004 Pilgrim numbers - month by month forecast

[Robert Spenger]

I had thought that the discrepancy was do to the fact that one was a
prediction and the other was the actual number that were issued.
Predictions are only guess work after all and it would not be
surprising if the actual numbers surpass them.

R. Spenger


On Feb 9, 2004, at 4:49 PM, Richard Ferguson wrote:

> To answer Jeffrey's question, the discrepancy could be caused by many
> factors.  One, the
> difference between numbers of pilgrims in refugios vs. compostellas
> given.  I understood that
> the 3000 refered to pilgrims in refugios, not compostellas. I would be
> surprised if those two
> numbers were the same, and one weakness in my projected numbers is
> that I used the ratio of
> the monthly distribution of compostellas to distribute the pilgrims in
> refugio numbers.  The
> other relates to the difference in timing of different events.
> January is the lowest month for
> compostellas, but there are many more compostellas given in February.
> Presumably many of
> the people in refugios in January do not receive their compostella
> until February.  Perhaps the
> pilgrims in January are less likely to complete their pilgrimage and
> get a compostella.
> Perhaps, due to the holy year, more pilgrims are traveling "off
> season" to avoid the projected
> crowds.
>
> In any event, the monthly numbers I projected are more of a general
> view of the possible
> distribution of pilgrims, and may be even less accurate than I
> believe.   However, they should
> give one a general sense of which months will be very busy vs. less
> busy.
>
> Richard
>
>
> From:    Jeffrey Crawley <jt.crawleyaUKONLINE.CO.UK>
> Subject: Re: 2004 Pilgrim numbers - month by month forecast
>
> But wasn't the figure for January 2004 nearly 3000 issued?
>
> Jeffrey
>